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日期：2019-05-04 10:47

BADM 574 GRD – Simulation and Risk Analysis

Spring 2019

Office Hours: 1.00 – 2.00 pm., 3.30 – 4.30 T/R.

Class Details: 11.00 – 12.20 am., Tuesdays and Thursdays, BIF 2043.

Course Description

This course is around using analytic tools (simulation and decision analytics) to make better

decisions. The focus will be on “hands-on” use of quantitative and statistical tools for solution

of management problems involving risk and uncertainty. The course is useful for students specializing in

areas of business where it is important to combine quantitative analysis with

business judgment such as accounting, finance, marketing, information systems, operations

management and supply chain management.

Course Goals and Objectives

These include:

(1) learning to use simulation and decision analytics tools suitable for modeling and solving complex

managerial problems with risky outcomes, and

(2) applying the analytical tools to realistic business contexts.

Course Material:

1. Go to http://probabilitytoolkit.com/purchase/#Probability-ToolKit-Student-Licenses and purchase

“Probability ToolKit Student.” This package includes TreePlan and SimVoi.

2. A laptop and Microsoft Excel installed.

Grading:

The course grade will be based on the following components, with weights shown:

Class participation and quizzes 10%

In-class work 25%

Case studies 25%

Midterm Exam: 20%

Final Exam: 20%

Class Participation:

Attendance, quizzes and class participation are all important toward learning the material and will

count for grade.

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In-class Work:

Periodically we will work out exercises in class, further illustrating concepts. These will often entail

the use of software. This work must be completed in class and submitted by end of class period.

Please bring your laptops to every class.

Case Study Assignments:

Approximately every other week, a case study will be assigned. These will require analytical treatment utilizing

the methods covered in class. You will have a week to complete the work and submit on Compass; late

submissions will not be accepted.

Midterm and Final Exam:

These will be in-class, of an open-book format and will require the use of laptops. University rules in

respect of conduct at exams, of course, apply. Exams missed without justification (e.g. medical

emergency, university authorization) will result in zero credit; make-up exams will only be given for

university authorized exceptions.

Special Accommodations

If you have any condition, such as a physical or learning disability, which will make it difficult

for you to carry out the work outlined in this syllabus or which will require academic

accommodations, please get in touch with Disability Resources and Educational Services (DRES)

website: http://www.disabi lity.uiuc.edu /.

Academic Integrity

Academic integrity is critical in order to maintain a fair atmosphere for learning. Sections I-401

through 406 of the student code contains details of the university policy regarding academic

integrity and can be accessed at: http://www.admin.uiuc.edu /policy/code/article_ l /a l _ l - 40

I.html. Penalties for violations range from a zero on the assignment to an F on the course.

BIF Emergency Procedures

Because BIF is not a designated tornado shelter, in the event of a tornado warning please seek

shelter in the Wohlers Hall basement or the Armory (the nearest designated University tornado

shelters). If a tornado is imminent, the BIF basement stairwells can be used on an emergency

basis. In the event of a fire in BIF, exit BIF and proceed to 141 Wohlers Hall. In the event of

threat from a shooter on campus, lock down the classroom and move to a place of safety within

the classroom. If you encounter a suspicious package, do not touch the package, alert campus

security, and refrain from cell phone usage until the situation is resolved. More detailed

information and action instructions are available in the BIF Building Emergency Action Plan.

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Tentative Schedule

Note: This is a tentative schedule; may be modified based on progress.

Date Topic

3/12 Decision Trees, modeling dependent uncertainties

3/14 Decision Trees (contd.), modeling sequential decisions

3/26 Risk aversion, utility functions

3/28 Certainty Equivalent

4/2 Value of perfect and imperfect information

4/4 Using TreePlan

4/9 Using TreePlan

4/11 Midterm exam

4/16 Uncertain quantities – discrete and continuous

4/18 Modeling uncertain relationships in SimVoi

4/23 Monte Carlo simulation using SimVoi

4/25 Simulation using SimVoi (contd.) – business application

4/30 Simulation using SimVoi (contd.) – business application

5/3 Common Final Exam

8.00 – 11.00 am

2041 BIF

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