AD654程序代写、代写Python程序语音

日期：2022-11-04 08:47

AD654: Marketing Analytics

Boston University

Assignment IV: AB Testing, a Statistical Test, and a Dashboard

Once you have completed this assignment, you will upload two files into Blackboard: The .ipynb file that

you create in Jupyter Notebook, and an .html file that was generated from your .ipynb file. If you run

into any trouble with submitting the .html file to Blackboard, you can submit it as a PDF instead.

For any question that asks you to perform some particular task, you just need to show your input and

output in Jupyter Notebook. Tasks will always be written in regular, non-italicized font.

For any question that asks you to include interpretation, write your answer in a Markdown cell in

Jupyter Notebook. Any homework question that needs interpretation will be written in italicized font.

Do not simply write your answer in a code cell as a comment, but use a Markdown cell instead.

Remember to be resourceful! There are many helpful resources available to you, including the video

library, the class slides, the recitation sessions, the Zoom office hours sessions, and the web.

Part I:A/B Testing Sales Promotion Strategies

Lobster Land is considering some different promotional campaigns for its online merchandise

store. To compare the performances of three different ad campaigns, Lobster Land has teamed

up with a convenience store retailer known as Kwik-E-Mart.

Inside of various Kwik-E-Mart locations throughout Maine, Lobster Land ran three unique types

of promotions. In each case, Lobster Land used unique QR codes; these codes enabled Lobster

Land to know the exact amount of online merchandise revenue generated by each campaign.

This dataset contains the following variables:

MarketID Unique identifier for a market

MarketSize Size of market area by sales

LocationID Unique identifier for each store location

AgeOfStore Age of store in years

Promotion One of three promotions that was tested

Week One of the four weeks when the promotions were run

SalesInThousands Sales amount, in thousands, per row (each row is a unique LocationID,

Promotion, andWeek combination)

Lobster Land is hoping that you can help them to better understand this data! Specifically, they

want to know about Promotion1, Promotion2, and Promotion 3. Can you analyze

campaign_data.csv and then offer them any insights about which Promotion is most

effective at increasing sales?

A. Generate a barplot to show the average SalesInThousands values, separated by

the different promotion types.

a. Describe your barplot in 1-2 sentences.

B. You want to make sure that the promotions were evenly-balanced across time.

Create another barplot -- this time, build a barplot that shows the number of

instances in which each of the promotions was held. Include the ‘week’ variable

in your plot, too.

a. What does this show you about the experiment design? Do you think

the ‘week’ could be a confounding variable in the experiment?

C. Next, generate some summary stats here -- group the observations by

‘Promotion’ and then describe the store ages.

a. How would you describe these results in general? You won’t use a

statistical test here, but instead, just summarize what this seems to show

-- does the age profile of the stores seem to be very different, or does it

look like it’s pretty similar across these three groups?

D. Using an appropriate statistical test for each comparison, compare every possible

promotion (Promotion 1 vs. Promotion 2, Promotion 2 vs. Promotion 3, and

Promotion 1 vs. Promotion 3) to assess its impact on sales.

a. What were the t-statistics and p-statistics for each head-to-head test?

b. Based on these results, what can you conclude about the promotions?

Part II: Using a Statistical Test to Evaluate a Claim

A traveling salesman comes to Maine with a proposal for Lobster Land: He would like to set up

a dice game “called Lucky Evens” that will be held inside the park. He is offering to pay Lobster

Land $700 per day for the rights to operate his dice game.

If Lobster Land allows this man to run the game, it will work like this: Any park visitor can pay

$12 to roll one of his six-sided dice. If the dice roll results in a 2, 4, or 6, the visitor will receive

$20; however, if the roll results in a 1, 3, or 5, the visitor will lose his $12.

You are a little bit suspicious about this traveling salesman, so you decide to test out his dice.

On the one hand, you think that visitors to the park might enjoy this game, as well as the

opportunity to earn some extra money during their visit. On the other hand, what if this guy is

a thief who wants to just steal from the park’s guests by cheating them out of their money?

You roll the visitor’s dice 60 times, and you record the following results:

RecordedValues (60 Rolls)

DiceValue Number of Times Observed

13

7

12

8

14

6

Still unsure about whether to trust this out-of-town salesman, you decide that perhaps 60 rolls

of the dice were not enough. You bring over one of your analytics interns and you ask him to

double your previous effort -- he needs to roll this thing 120 times! After rolling 120 times, he

records the following results:

RecordedValues (120 Rolls)

DiceValue Number of Times Observed

26

14

24

16

28

12

A. Using the results from the first set of dice rolls (in which you rolled the visitor’s

dice 60 times), conduct a chi-square goodness of fit test in Python.

a. What is the null hypothesis of this test? What is the alternative

hypothesis?

b. What is the p-value of this test? Based on this value, what will you

conclude? Be sure to mention the null hypothesis in your answer to this

question. (you can assume that Lobster Land uses an alpha value of 0.05

for statistical tests)

B. Now, using only the results from the second set of dice rolls (in which the intern

rolled the visitor’s dice 120 times), conduct a chi-square goodness of fit test in

Python.

a. What is the null hypothesis of this test? What is the alternative

hypothesis?

b. What is the p-value of this test? Based on this value, what will you

conclude? Be sure to mention the null hypothesis in your answer to this

question.

C. Demonstrate where the two chi-square values used above came from. Use

Jupyter Notebook to do this, but do not use any Python libraries or modules.

Instead, show the calculation used to determine the chi-square value for each

case (the 60-roll trial, and the 120-roll trial).

i. What pattern did you notice in the results, when comparing the

observed values from the two trials?

ii. If your chi-square value from the second trial was different from

the one you obtained from the first trial, describe in about 1-2

sentences why you think it changed. Just a couple sentences is

enough here -- a full credit answer will ‘connect the dots’ between

the formula for the chi-square value and the way it was impacted

by the data here.

D. What should Lobster Land tell the traveling salesman? Why?

E. If using more dice rolls in the 2nd trial seems to have impacted the results, write

a completely intuitive (no math!) explanation for why this might make sense. To

write this answer, don’t use any math or statistics references. Instead, be

creative, and think about how you might explain to a small child (or an adult that

doesn’t know about math) about the impact of having more evidence in order to

make the decision here (2-4 sentences here will be enough).

Part III: UsingTableau to Build a Dashboard:

A. Bring lobster22.csv into your Tableau Public environment. (the same dataset that we

used for Homework #1)

B. Using any layout style, build a dashboard that includes any four unique visualizations of

your choice. By “unique” this just means that you should not build two of the same type

of plot (e.g. not more than one histogram, not more than one barplot, not more than

one treemap, etc.). Give a title to each of your four plots.

C. Write a one-paragraph description of your dashboard. Write about the plots that you

made and describe your process. You can do this in any file format, and upload it with

your Assignment 4 submission.

D. Paste a link to your file in the same document that you used to write the description. If

you used Tableau Desktop, you can just upload the .twbx file instead.

Note: This section is intentionally very open-ended. Each submission will be unique. The goal here is

not to arrive at a single “correct” answer but to have everyone gain some hands-on experience with

building a dashboard in Tableau. The dashboards will not be scored by some ‘beauty contest’ measure --

the key here is to (1) make a good-faith effort to build a dashboard with four separate types of

visualizations, and (2) include a thoughtful narrative paragraph. Every answer that does those things will

receive full credit for this section.