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日期：2019-10-23 11:14

Production and Planning and Control Fall 2019

Homework

Release date: 10 October 2019 14:00

Due date: 24 October 2019 14:15

I confirm that this homework is my own work and is not copied from any other person's work.

Signature: Production Planning and Control Homework

1Forecasting

The ProMotors company produces two types of Engines, which are PM-A and PM-B. ProMotors’ main customers are car manufacturers, but some engine components are also sold to Aircraft producers. The sales of PM-A engine have varied significantly from month to month. ProMotors has a good reputation in Delivery reliability and aims to keep it. The manager of ProMotors wants to make sure that there is enough vehicles and drivers to deliver raw materials and finished products in time. The following table shows the sales of PM-A in 2018 and 2019.

1.1Make a forecast of PM-A for 2020 using four-month simple moving average. Show the calculation of F(Jan 2020), F(Jul 2020), and F(Dec 2020). Put the forecasted sales in Table 2. Assume that actual demand equals to the forecasted demand in 2020. Fill out the 4th column of Table

2. You are allowed to use Excel.

Note: always round up the forecast results!(5 P)

1.2 Make forecast of PM-A for 2020 using weighted moving average with the weights of 0.5, 0.33, and 0.17. Use the weights in the best order. Show the calculation of F(Jan 2020), F(Jul 2020), and F(Dec 2020)! Fill out the 5th column of Table 2! Assume that actual demand equals to the forecasted demand in 2020. You are allowed to use Excel.

Note: always round up the forecast results!(7 P)

Table 2 Forecast for 2019 with moving average

Month201820192020 moving average (Q 1.1)2020 weighted moving average (Q 1.2)

Jan1,2501,275

Feb1,3501,185

Mar9751,175

Apr800975

May10001,100

Jun9751,095

Jul1,1501,115

Aug1,2001,225

Sep1,3001,750

Oct1,7501,700

Nov1,7001,160

Dec1,8251,700

Total15,27515,455

Question 2

2.1ProMotors realizes now, that there were seasonal factors in the actual demand of PM-A in 2018 and 2019 that follow the quarters. Fill out the

following table and find the seasonal factor of each quarter. Show the calculations!(5 P)

Table 3 Demand of PM-A in 2018 and 2019 following seasonal factor

QuarterMonth20182019Seasonal factor

2.2Now, ProMotors would like to find out if there is a trend in the deseasonalized sales by determining the linear regression equation. Find the a and b of the linear regression and write the linear regression equation. Fill out the table and show your work. Note: Round up the

deseasonalized demand(13 P)

YearQuartertActual demand (y)Deseasonalized demand (????)??2?? × ????

2.3Calculate the seasonalized and deseasonalized forecast for 2020 by filling out the following table. Note: Round up the forecasts!(5 P)

Table 4 Seasonalized and deseasonalized forecast for 2020

QuarterDeseasonalized forecastSeasonalized forecast

2.4Calculate the demand forecast for 2019 using Winters method with ?? = 0.1, ?? = 0.1, ?? = 0.1 by filling out the following table. Please use excel(5 P)

Table 5 Demand forecast using Winters method

QuarterActual DemandForecast with winters method

2.5Calculate the demand forecast for Q1 2020 using Winters method with

?? = 0.1, ?? = 0.1, ?? = 0.1. Show your calculation and round up the result.

2.6Is it possible to forecast the demand of Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2020 using Winters method? Explain your answer!

2.7Compare the forecast errors of Winters method to linear regression of all quarters of 2019 by filling out the following table. Use the results of 2.4! Show the calculation of MAD, MAPE, and TS of linear regression for Q1 and Q3. Which method is the best to forecast the demand of all quarters of 2019?

2Capacity Planning

ProMotors is currently located in Germany. They manufacture their engines from three factories located in Bremen, Stuttgart, and Berlin, which assemble PM-A, PM-B and PM- C respectively. However, due to the predicted increasing demand trend of PM-B from 2020, ProMotors has to adjust their production capacity.

Question 3

The management plans to increase the capacity of its factories, mainly the Stuttgart factory. However, the operation cost in Stuttgart is quite expensive. There are some options that ProMotors can take to increase the capacity:

1.Extend the factory in Stuttgart starting from 2020.

2.Move 20% of the PM-B assembly to Bremen in 2021. It means the factory in Bremen has to be extended and the factory in Stuttgart does not have to be extended.

3.Move the assembly of PM-B to Vietnam in 2022 completely to get larger capacity but with lower cost.

4.Use the current factory in Stuttgart and distribute the assembly work of PM-B 10% to the factory in Bremen 2021 and 10% to the factory in Berlin in 2022.

The following are facts about alternatives and current situation of ProMotors

Table 6 Sales Forecast of PM-B from 2020 to 2024

Year20202021202220232024

Units15001200170013501400

1.The production in Stuttgart would cost 50,000 Euro per unit and the extension of the factory in Stuttgart in 2020 would cost 10 Mio Euro.

2.The production cost in Bremen would be 45,000 Euro per unit; the extension of the factory in 2021 would cost 5 Mio Euro.

3.The production cost in Berlin would be 42,000 Euro per unit; the extension of the factory in 2022 would cost 7.5 Mio Euro.

4.The production and logistics in Vietnam would cost 32,000 Euro per unit. In 2022, the setup of the factory in Vietnam would cost 20 Mio Euro and the moving cost would be 10 Mio. Euro.

5.The moving costs within Germany can be ignored.

6.Assume all other costs and revenues are the same for all options.

7.The decision has to be made in the beginning of 2020.

3.1Construct a decision tree that considers all options.(5 P)

3.2Find the best option by calculate the Net Present Value using the interest rate of 10%(14 P)

Question 4

To assemble PM-B in the factory in Stuttgart, it requires four steps performed in four workstations as depicted below. The assembly line has throughput target of three jobs per day and 1 machine can handle 1 job.

Table 7 The property values corresponding to the workstations

WorkstationSetup cost (000 Eur)Unit cost (000 Eur)????

(days)??????

120102.51

230141.252

325181.754

45533.5

4.1Calculate the Minimum Cost Capacity-Feasible (MCCF) and the Cycle Time of the production line that assembles PM-B. Calculate the cost capacity and cycle time for each workstation first. Show the calculations of Workstation 1 and 4. Fill out the following table (Table 8).(13 P)

Table 8 MCCP and cost of assembly line PM-B

Workst ationNumber of JobsNumber of MachinesUtiliza tionCosts

4.2The target cycle time for the assembly line is CT=20 days. The different options to achieve the target is give in Table 9. Find the cheapest options

to achieve the targeted cycle time by filling out the Table 9 and Table 10. Calculate the cost and the cycle time of the best option.(13 P)

Table 9 Different options to reduce the cycle time

WorkstationCurrent

number of machinesChangeCost

increase (000 Eur)CT

decrease (days)Ratio of cost increase/day

1Upgradeall

machinesto automatic ones203.50

2Addtwo

additional machines154

3Reduce the variability51.17

4Addfour

additional machines205.5

Table 10 The states after performing the changes

WorkstationNumber of machines after changeUtilizationCost of workstation (000 Eur)